EI
ETSY INC (ETSY)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 revenue was $672.7M, up 3.8% YoY, with consolidated take rate at 24.0%; Adjusted EBITDA was $169.0M (25.1% margin). GMS was $2.8B, down 4.8% YoY; Etsy marketplace GMS was $2.4B, down 5.4% YoY but improved sequentially vs Q1 .
- Results vs consensus: revenue beat ($672.7M vs ~$647.6M*) while Primary EPS missed (actual $0.689* vs ~$1.090*); GAAP diluted EPS was $0.25 . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
- Management guided Q3 2025 GMS to $2.6–$2.7B, ~24.5% take rate, and ~25% Adjusted EBITDA margin; guidance explicitly framed as QoQ improvement “apples-to-apples” post-Reverb sale .
- Catalysts: stronger take rate from on-site ads, app-led engagement gains (App GMS ~45%), Depop acceleration (GMS +35% YoY), and balance sheet flexibility after ~$700M convertible notes and $335M buybacks .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Strong revenue/take rate from Etsy Ads improvements and payments; take rate up 200 bps YoY to 24% .
- App momentum: App GMS ~45% of Etsy marketplace, MAUs +7% YoY; app experience more browsable and personalized .
- Depop strength: GMS $249.6M (+35.3% YoY), U.S. GMS +54% YoY; positioned as fastest-growing U.S. online fashion resale platform .
- Quote: “Our take rate was very strong, at 24%, primarily driven by the expansion of Etsy Ads revenue…” — CFO Lanny Baker .
- Quote: “We’re seeing early success… more browsable shopping experience… amplified by more personalized marketing and emergent AI technologies.” — CEO Josh Silverman .
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What Went Wrong
- GMS and buyers down YoY: consolidated GMS -4.8%; Etsy marketplace GMS -5.4%; active buyers -4.6% YoY to 87.3M .
- Profitability pressure: GAAP net income margin 4.3% (down ~390 bps YoY) due to FX loss; Adjusted EBITDA margin down 260 bps YoY to 25.1% .
- EPS optics: GAAP diluted EPS $0.25; Primary EPS missed consensus*; non-GAAP adjustments include excluding payroll tax on SBC from Adjusted EBITDA beginning Q1’25 .
- Analyst concern: core Etsy EBITDA managed to “high-20s” (below 30%+) near-term; management is investing to reaccelerate growth (app, paid social, ML) .
Financial Results
Segment/Revenue Mix
Marketplace KPIs
Guidance Changes
Management framed Q3 guidance as sequential improvement “apples-to-apples” at midpoint post-Reverb divestiture .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Second quarter GMS and revenue came in ahead of expectations, and adjusted EBITDA was in line with our guidance… take rate was very strong, at 24%… strengthened our balance sheet through a highly successful convertible notes offering… repurchased approximately $335 million of Etsy stock.” — CFO Lanny Baker .
- “We’re seeing early success… more browsable shopping experience… amplified by more personalized marketing and emergent AI technologies.” — CEO Josh Silverman .
- “We are retooling our ranking platform to more effectively leverage capabilities of large language models… deliver better search results… more diverse and engaging recommendations.” — President & Chief Growth Officer Kruti Patel Goyal .
- “We currently expect Q3 consolidated GMS to be between $2.6B and $2.7B… take rate ~24.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin ~25%.” — CFO Lanny Baker .
Q&A Highlights
- GMS trajectory and margin philosophy: Sequential GMS improvement driven by app adoption, personalized owned channels, Paid Social, and PLA optimization; core Etsy margins managed to “high-20s” with growth investments to re-accelerate revenue .
- App acquisition and behavior: App increases LTV; pushing app adoption via mobile web prompts, email/push, and modest paid app marketing; gradual approach to acquisition spend .
- Marketing ROI: Benefited from reduced competition in Google auctions (Amazon/Temu/Shein pullbacks) and segmentation tactics; diversifying spend earlier in discovery via social channels .
- Agentic shopping: Early days; Etsy’s unique inventory positions it well; genAI to personalize landing experiences and broaden category exposure .
- Loyalty program economics: Etsy Insider V2 aims for scalable economics (e.g., shipping benefits with guardrails; rewards on purchases), focusing on top buyers .
Estimates Context
Results vs S&P Global consensus (Primary EPS and Revenue):
Notes:
- GAAP diluted EPS reported by Etsy was $0.25 , which differs from S&P Global’s “Primary EPS” construct.
- Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Forward estimates context:
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Revenue beat driven by Etsy Ads optimization and payments; take rate expansion to 24% underscores monetization strength even with YoY GMS declines .
- Sequential marketplace stabilization: Etsy marketplace GMS improved vs Q1; app-led engagement (MAUs +7% YoY, App GMS ~45%) indicates product/marketing flywheel gaining traction .
- Depop is becoming a meaningful growth vector (U.S. +54% YoY), with expanded Q3 marketing investments and a permanent CEO, supporting consolidated growth narrative .
- Near-term margin trade-off is intentional: management prioritizes growth re-acceleration (app, Paid Social, ML) while managing core Etsy Adjusted EBITDA in the high-20% range .
- Balance sheet optionality: ~$700M converts at 1.00% due 2030 and $335M Q2 buybacks provide flexibility to manage maturities and pursue repurchases and investments .
- Q3 outlook signals QoQ improvement: GMS $2.6–$2.7B, ~24.5% take rate, ~25% margin — look for sustained momentum in app engagement, marketing ROI, and agentic shopping integrations .
- Watch estimate revisions: Post revenue beat and guidance clarity, sell-side models may raise revenue/take rate assumptions but keep margins near ~25% as investment cadence persists*. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Appendix: Additional Data
Convertible Notes Details (June 12, 2025):
- $650M 1.00% converts due 2030; initial conversion price ~$85.79; ~$150M of proceeds used to repurchase shares at $60.20; balance for general corporate purposes .
Cross-Period FX and Non-GAAP notes:
- Q2 2025 GAAP net income was impacted by a $25.4M non-cash FX loss vs a $4.9M FX gain in Q2 2024 .
- Beginning Q1 2025, payroll tax on SBC excluded from Adjusted EBITDA (immaterial prior period impact) .